The Reserve Bank of
India today released the April 2014 issue of its monthly Bulletin.
The Bulletin includes five special articles: (1) India's Foreign Trade: April-December
2013; (2) North-East Monsoon 2013: An Overview (October - December, 2013); (3)
Position of Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation for the Quarters
October 2012 to September 2013; (4) Composition and Ownership Pattern of
Deposits with Scheduled Commercial Banks: March 2013; and (5) Real Effective
Exchange Rate based on CPIas Price Index for India.
Highlights:
India’s trade
performance improved during April-December 2013 as compared with the
corresponding period of 2012-13. While on the one hand, modest pick-up in some
trade partner economies and sustained depreciation of rupee helped India’s
exports to grow in Q2 and Q3, on the other hand, there was a sharp moderation
in imports since June 2013, particularly non-oil imports. This led to a
significant correction in India’s trade balance in April-December 2013.
Major highlights of
India’s trade performance during April-December 2013 are set out below:
- Indian merchandise exports recorded a growth
of 5.5 per cent at US$ 229.3 billion during April-December 2013 as against
a decline of 4 per cent at US$ 217.4 billion during April-December 2012.
- Disaggregated commodity-wise data reveal that
growth in exports was contributed by improved performance of manufactured
goods, particularly, leather and manufactures, chemical and related
products, engineering goods, and textile and textile products.
- Destination-wise, exports to major
destinations, viz.,USA, Belgium, Italy, Germany, UK, Japan,
Iran, China, Hong Kong and Malaysia exhibited a considerable rise during
April-December of 2013-14.
- Imports stood at US$ 340.5 billion during
April-December 2013 declining by 6.5 per cent from the previous year’s
level of US$ 364.2 billion.
- Moderation in imports was primarily led by a
significant decline in gold imports during April-December 2013 by about 38
per cent. Growth in oil imports also moderated to 2.7 per cent as compared
with a growth of 9.8 per cent during April-December 2012.
The year 2013-14 has
been exceptionally favourable for agricultural growth in terms of climatic
conditions. The North-East monsoon as well as the South-West monsoon received
normal rainfall. These favourable factors were complemented by other factors
like seamless inter-seasonal transition and adequate replenishment of soil
moisture and reservoirs which boosted the production of crops. This was evident
in the satisfactory progress of sowing, the result of which being record
production as per the second advance estimates 2013-14, in rice, wheat, pulses,
oilseeds and cotton. This augurs well for the anticipated higher off-taking of
rice and wheat under the National Food Security Act 2013 as well as for
bridging the demand-supply gaps of pulses and oilseeds in which the country has
not as yet achieved self-sufficiency.
The Reserve Bank’s
quarterly Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS)
gathers information on the movements in business indicators of manufacturing
companies in India. This article analyses the changes in their order books,
inventories and capacity utilisation during the 4-quarter period of Q3:2012-13
(i.e., October-December 2012) to Q2:2013-14 (i.e., July-September
2013). The analysis of survey parameters is based on responses of the companies
in the latest survey round and which were common for the last five quarters.
Main Findings:
- Average value of new orders of sample
companies was lower in Q3:2012-13 as compared with the position in
Q3:2011-12 but was marginally higher than that in Q2:2012-13. For the next
two quarters, new orders contracted both on year-on-year (y-o-y) and
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis. However, there was a turnaround in Q2:
2013-14 when new orders grew both on y-o-y and q-o-q basis.
- During the period Q3:2012-13 to Q1:2013-14,
capacity utilisation at the aggregate level remained lower when compared
with the position in the corresponding quarters of the previous year, but
was marginally higher in Q2:2013-14 when compared with Q2:2012-13.
- The finished goods (FG) inventory to sales
ratio rose gradually between Q3:2012-13 and Q1:2013-14. Following the
trend in other parameters, FG inventory to sales ratio also dipped in
Q2:2013-14 confirming the improvement in the demand condition.
- Overall, the demand conditions in the
manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement in Q2: 2013-14.
This article presents
an analysis of composition and ownership pattern of outstanding deposits with
scheduled commercial banks (including regional rural banks) during 2006-2013.
The analysis brings out broad trends across type of deposit accounts,
institutional sectors, population groups and bank groups over the period.
The major highlights
of the data are as follows:
- Current, savings and term deposits comprise
9.9 per cent, 25.7 per cent and 64.5 per cent, respectively in the total
deposits in March 2013.
- ‘Household’ sector with 59.6 per cent share in
total deposits was the largest contributor in total deposits in March 2013
followed by government and private corporate sector contributing 13.9 and
12.4 per cent, respectively.
- Metropolitan branches followed by urban and
semi-urban branches continued to lead deposit generation by SCBs mainly in
the form of term deposits; savings deposits dominated in rural branches
followed by term deposits.
- Bank group-wise, public sector banks accounted
for the largest share (74.3 per cent) in total deposits in March 2013
followed by private sector banks (18.8 per cent).
On April 4, 2014, the
Reserve Bank released the monthly series on CPI based real effective exchange
rate (REER) for both 6 and 36 currency baskets for the period April 2004 to
March 2014 (http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx
?prid=30958). The CPI based REER is computed by adjusting the base
to 2004-05 as 100 for the back-casted series of new CPI data as provided in the Report
of the Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework released
by the Reserve Bank in January 2014
This article briefly
discusses the methodology along with the rationale for computing the CPI based
REER. The WPI based series is also provided alongside for smooth transition to
the revised series. Henceforth, starting from the financial year 2014-15, only
the CPI based REER would be compiled and released by the Reserve Bank.
Sangeeta Das
Director
Press Release : 2013-2014/2004
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PressRelease/PDFs/IEPR2004BU0414.pdf
